The Peak that Never Peaked

Football teams often undergo a phase of transition from one generation to the next. They reach a peak during one or a couple of seasons where the team generally keep a couple of permanent players in their roster. Then, the players reach the dreaded 30s age group and lose some of their fitness. During that critical juncture, the club has to look to blood in younger players or they will face a group with declining performance but this new generation will need game time and be able to live up to the peak of their predecessor's generation or the club will not be able to successfully transition.

But with the hype that follows modern football and the constant press and rumor mill about transfers and signings that crop up every half a year in the Summer and Winter period, these has resulted in a faster turnover of players. In particular, clubs competing for silverware and have the financial resources would quite understandably face the pressure to sign the next hottest football stars, even when their team is soundly adept. Teams that are not financially stable or not competing for silverware too face the prospects of selling their young hot players to the bigger teams. Hence, it is becoming increasingly harder to define a football generation.

Unlike the days of United '99 or Invincibles '04 or Brazil '62, it is hard to pinpoint a particular group of players to call it the Team of '19, for example. With the number of competitions in addition to the Premier League and the pace of the modern English game, teams will need more than their best 11 to win any of the competitions. They will need atleast a best 25 players, and these are what more successful clubs such as Manchester City and Chelsea are doing. Chelsea, however, face a curious prospect of transition in recent years.

The Peak of the Last Golden Generation

Chelsea did have a proper successful but ageing generation that peaked around 2008-2009, but ever since then, they have been in a state of transition. With the introduction of Callum Hudson Odoi, Andreas Christensen and Ethan Ampadu, Chelsea academy graduates, and the leaving of prominent stalwarts, Fabregas, and perhaps Willian and David Luiz, there are talks of a new generation of footballers coming to the fore. But what had happened then of the generation of footballers between the 2008-2009 and now?

Truthfully, the Chelsea team that won the Champions League in Munich 2012 was already a diminishing one. Mourinho had built that team, buying World-Class talents in their prime and gelling them with talented Chelsea players that had matured on time to become a formidable unit. that peaked circa 2008-2009. By 2012, prominent stalwarts or Legends as they are referred to now, were ageing and started to be transferred away. They did not play the same domineering swashbuckling style as they did in their peak and looked thoroughly overwhelmed throughout their Champions League run, but that team nevertheless got their last triumphant good-bye in their highly unlikely win in Munich. So what happened of the next generation?

The Hazard Generation

No one man from Chelsea has ever risen so high in acclaim among the tongues of opposition clubs as Eden Hazard. His name rings fear and admiration among all supporters.Yet in 2019, he is to be one of the oldest remaining Chelsea players at the club. Hazard joined the team right after they had won the Champions League. He joined from Lille, citing his desire to compete for trophies and win, but also in the knowledge that Chelsea was in a transitioning phase, having not done well in the Premier League in 2012. He is what will come to be defined as the succeeding generation to the Legends.

In truth, Chelsea did have another peak after that golden generation, and if I were to pinpoint the time, it would be between Mourinho's Chelsea of 2014/15 and Conte's Chelsea of 2015/16. And to lead one more speculative step on, it is during the 2017/18 season that the team was supposed to have reached its Legendary zenith, only to be thwarted by quick-change signings and a radical change in football philosophy.

Mourinho's Chelsea of 2014/15

After winning the league in the 2013/14 season, Chelsea was harshly brought to their knees in a 10th place finish humbling in 2014/15 that also saw Mourinho sacked for the second time as Chelsea manager. But indeed, it had been a strange season where Leicester City eventually won the league and where most of the expected top sides did not do very well in the Premier League or abroad. For the other clubs such as Tottenham and Liverpool, they were in a period of transition. Manchester United was in a period of declination with poor manager choices and signing since Fergie stepped down. Manchester City had the team but not the manager to fully utilise the talents at their disposal. But Chelsea had a ready-made Champion team peaking at around that period. So what had happened?

 I can give two reasons for the disastrous 2014/15 campaign. One, complacency. This reason was also reiterated by Mourinho and some of his players even after his eventual sacking. After their triumph the year before, Mourinho had seemingly cut a lot of slack on his returning Champions, even giving them more time to enjoy before returning for the pre-season. As a result, the team came back with a lot of fitness backlog as well as an overconfidence that belies their real need to catch-up. Other teams punished the Chelsea team early in the season, dishing out surprise defeats where they least expected. When analysing the Chelsea games, I concede that Chelsea was playing horrible football. There were almost no chemistry, nor good tactics, among the players. But when analysing the players individually though, I noticed that each of the players are brilliant in their own individual positions. 

Thus, this brings me to the second reason. Luck. Pundits were telling how Hazard was having a horrible season, with a goal draught that extends almost a year, but they failed to see how much of an impact he was giving to the game. He dribbles and opens up spaces week in and week out and in the later part of that season, he should have scored much many goals have it not been down to luck. For example, the keeper was having a good day or he hits the post but when one re-watches the game again, one will see that he was not playing badly. That was the reality of Hazard's 'down' season. It was pure luck, just like how a badly performing Leicester City could win the league. The same goes for almost the entire 2014/15 squad.

Conte's Chelsea of 2015/16

Hence it was to no surprise actually that Conte's team stormed to a Premier League finish the next season. People may say that it was due to Chelsea not having more football matches than the other top teams. That is partly true, but it is also because the particular team inherited by Conte contains the core of a team that has reached its peak. Conte improved the team in some areas but, in my opinion, he has weakened the team in others. Except for a small handful of players, the main squad of the team however, comprise of Mourinho's 'disastrous' team.

From front to back, this Chelsea side is loaded with individuals that had reached their peak. Courtois was a Chelsea loanee recalled to the Chelsea team from Athletico Madrid. He was the supposed successor to the legendary Petr Cech and he has rightfully displaced the latter. David Luiz has been recalled back, supposedly matured and improved since his PSG stint, and he too has reached that peak at around 28 years of age. Fabregas is still technically brilliant and have slightly reached the dull end of his peak. Matic was still good and reliable, a midfield enforcer. Up front, we had Eden Hazard of course, together with Willian and Pedro who are all players who could easily walk into any other top teams around the World around the 2015/16 season. They have reached their peak in terms of football abilities. And at the front, we had Diego Costa, the successor to King Drogba of the Legends team who one might say is an upgrade to Drogba himself as he possesses Drogba's physicality and shooting capabilities but also had speed and technical abilities.

Some of Conte's signings complimented the team and further boosted their peak potential. In particular is N'golo Kante, the ever-running midfield enforcer. When Kante came, he still was a work in progress, like many of Conte's signings. Kante is good in his job as a breaker of play and winning balls, but he was neither a good passer nor a good dribbler. It took him months in the Chelsea team before he was sufficiently 'good' in that department. The other signing that helped is Antonio Rudiger, the supposed questionable mark beside David Luiz. Rudiger was a surprise addition in a squad otherwise teeming with talented CB players and he only arrived due to Conte's use of a 3-4-3 system, but Cahill was never going to be a prominent football figure in this peak side, a probable Bosingwa of the Chelsea Legends team, while Christensen, while offering lots of promise, was indeed just a young defender prematurely coming to the fore. His inexperience showed in the later half of the season but his time will come in the coming years.

The Peak that Never Was

Chelsea's recruitments in the 2015-2017 season was a strange one. Conte preferred to sign players that are almost raw gems and hence undervalued. He was under the impression that the team was in transition, especially with John Terry, the last Legend leaving, and on the back of Chelsea's ill-fated 2014/15 season. But that was anywhere but further from the truth. John Terry stuck around because he is a loyal Chelsea player who is there to ensure the new generation fulfilled their potential. He was there until someone could fill his boots and play better than he did, which eventually came under Conte. And the Chelsea team did not fail due to a transition the previous season, but rather due to unpreparedness and overconfidence.

Conte's change in the system may have also altered or even reduced this peak. Sure, it is not without flaws, with Chelsea still needing a replacement at left-back or right-back since Ashley Cole and Ivanovic left, and they do still need a technical player to link up play in the midfield, but Conte's radical change in the system created new openings for players with a drastically different kind of skillset that the peak generation do not have. Hence, drafted in are the likes of Marcos Alonso and Victor Moses who are not really a Legend-material, but not necessarily bad, in a conventional 4-3-3. His other signings too are simply unpolished products meant for a transitional squad, the likes of Batshuayi,Danny Drinkwater, Ross Barkley, Giroud and Alvaro Morata. They are not only not at their peak, their peak may not even be as promising as the Legends team. To make matters worse, he offloaded first Matic and then Diego Costa, both of whom are quite obviously playing at their current top forms. This blunting of the peak generation eventually led to an understandable bad finish in the Premier League, this time not because of unrealised potential  but because of a hastiness to transition when the team has not fully reached the top.

Conte's Vindication
For all of Conte's doings (or undoings), he did however solved one thing that the Chelsea new peak generation required; a discipline to realise that potential. His time with Chelsea was a time with mixed reactions. It was true that every Chelsea player from the Mourinho-inherited squad knew that they had not done well and each one knew that it was down to their complacency. The iron fist of Conte was just the desired punishment or stimulis to get them back on track to realising their potential and realise them they did, when they won the Premier League in 2016.

New Peak Generation?

A peak generation usually lasts only a season or two, that is the nature of football. When one reads about ageing players moving on, especially a few at a time, that is when one can roughly predict a transitioning side. Tottenham has not recruited much players the past few seasons and that is because they are cultivating a main core of peak squad players who are currently nearing their peak. Liverpool too, has done so and may have reached that peak now. It can be said that Guardiola has created his own peak generation with a big core of capable players. With money to splash, a peak generation can be created quickly, just like Chelsea's Legends team for example. It is still a few years before we can see the current Manchester City squad decline, and with proper youth investments, the transition could be smooth and define a long era.

Many have said that current Chelsea players in their 30s are losing their fitness and edge, players such as Pedro and Willian to name a few. That is probably true as they have passed their peak period. The question now is if Chelsea can successfully transition into a new peak period, not too raw without experience, but not at their very best yet. Sarri has been quite fast in the transfer market, bringing in Jorginho, who is not an unpolished gem but also with potential to improve, and trying to blood him in quickly. Players like Kante and Hazard have a few more years to give at their best. Young academy players are coming in, although Callum Hudson-Odoi offers the most promise to reach that peak more quickly. Ampadu may take a lot more years while Christensen less. Others will still need time to fully develop, players such as Ross Barkley and Alvaro Morata. Kepa was simply a like-for-like replacement for Courtois but is ready. I rather hope Kovacic will remain in Chelsea because like Jorginho, he is a finished product in his ilk and still young. Hence, this team is a mix of players who are close to nearing their peaks, still a distance from their peaks or already mooning towards the end of their peak. Unless a drastic change occur, this irregularity will continue, resulting in a mixture of playing potential being realised for the coming years. Over time however, with ample time for replacements and the core of the team being established in all the general areas of the squad, much like Manchester City, Chelsea can be a stable dominant force with a healthy peak and transition.

It will simply take time, patience and wise decisions.